2010年12月13日星期一

Cost of Living Increasingly a Struggle for China's Poor---中国穷人在通胀之下苦苦挣扎

Cost of Living Increasingly a Struggle for China's Poor
中国穷人在通胀之下苦苦挣扎
BEIJING — China's poor are being hit hard as the cost of putting dinner on the table soars, sharpening resentment and highlighting a fast-growing gap between rich and poor.
北京)一日三餐的花费不断增加,让中国的穷人很受伤。这加剧了他们的怨恨情绪,也凸显了贫富差距的迅速扩大。
Vegetable prices are up anywhere from a third to double over the same time last year. Cooking oil, fruit and some meats are also up, according to surveys, official figures and testimonies from food sellers and shoppers.

根据各种调查、官方数据及商家和消费者的证实,在中国各地,各种蔬菜价格比去年同期上涨了三成到一倍。食用油,水果和一些肉类的价格也上涨。1

The upshot is that China's poor — though not its rich — are struggling.

结果就让那些收入有限的中国穷人,在高物价下苦苦挣扎。

"Not all prices are going up. And not all people cannot afford it," said Ye Tan, a popular economist and media commentator. "This time inflation really is a problem of the poor. If you are middle class or rich, you don't notice that cabbage has gone up from 2 to 7 mao per half-kilo," or 4 to 11 U.S. cents, or that ginger now costs around 6 renminbi, or 90 cents, a half-kilogram, or just over a pound, about double the price of last year.

"并不是所有的东西都涨价,也并非所有的人都无法承受。"叶檀说。她是一位受人欢迎的经济学家和时事评论员。"这轮通胀对穷人的生活影响很大。如果你是中产或有钱人,你是不会留意到卷心菜的价格从每斤2毛涨到7毛的。"每斤生姜价格现在到了人民币6元左右,比去年价格翻番。中国的一斤,相当于美国的一磅多点。

Analysts say the causes of inflation are complex, but key factors include a surging money supply — up 47 percent since 2009, according to Jing Ulrich of J.P. Morgan — rising commodity prices overseas and a late, cold spring and summer rains. Others say fast economic growth inevitably produces some inflation. China's economy has grown an average of over 9 percent annually since 1989.

分析师说引起通胀的因素复杂。但关键的一些因素就是:货币供应量激增,自2009年以来,货币供应量增长了47%,摩根大通认为。而海外原材料商品的价格不断上涨,中国今年春寒时间较长,夏季多雨都是重要的因素。也有人认为,经济增长必然引发一些通胀。中国经济自1989年以来,平均每年增幅超过9%。

The consumer price index for October stands at 4.4 percent, above the government's goal of 3 percent. Ms. Ye expects the November figure to be between 4.7 and 4.8 percent, with increases to 5 percent next year. That's below a brief high of 8.7 percent in early 2008, but the government is worried enough to have introduced administrative measures, like lifting road tolls on trucks bringing food into cities. It has also announced a new, "prudent" monetary policy for 2011.

10月份公布的消费者价格指数为4.4%,超出了政府设定的3%的目标。叶檀女士预计11月份的CPI会在4.7%到4.8%之间。而明年会达到5%。相比2008年初的短期高位8.7%还有所降低。但政府仍十分忧虑通胀形势,并采取了行政措施,如取消了运输食品进城的卡车通行费。也公布了2011会采取新的"谨慎的"货币政策。

"Fear of inflation is hard-wired into their system," said a historian-turned-consultant, who spoke anonymously, reflecting political and social sensitivities.

"政府系统对通胀无不担忧。"一位不愿透露姓名的咨询顾问说,反映了当下政治和社会的对此的敏感。

The Chinese Communist Party never forgets it seized power in 1949 following not just military victory, but also hyperinflation under the Kuomintang government, he said. High inflation in the late 1980s — around 20 percent in 1988 — was a major cause of unrest leading to the 1989 democracy movement that nearly toppled the party.

中国共产党不会忘记,1949年国民党的失败不只是在军事上的,而且也是国民党政府经济恶性通货膨胀的后果。这位由历史学家改行的咨询顾问说。中国从上世纪80年代晚期开始的,到1988年最高达到20%的一轮通胀,也是引发次年发生的,重大不稳定事件的主要因素之一。

A divorced Beijing father surnamed Wei, who asked that his full name not be used for shame at his poverty, is trying to put his daughter through college on a pension of 1,000 renminbi, or $150, a month.

离了婚的魏先生,因为自己太穷了,感到抬不起头,所以让我们报道时,别公布他的全名。他现在仅靠着每月1,000元人民币的退休金过活,还要供养自己的女儿读大学。

"I can't afford fruit at all now," said Mr. Wei, 52, who took early retirement at 50. "I only buy the cheapest vegetables, like cabbage and radishes."

52岁的魏先生说,"我现在根本买不起水果。"他50岁时提前退休。"我只能买些最便宜的蔬菜,象卷心菜和萝卜。"

Cakes and other prepared foods are out, as he tries to squeeze his personal expenditure to 400 renminbi a month. The rest is for his daughter. He believes President Hu Jintao's government is doing more for the poor than former President Jiang Zemin's, but the government's small subsidies for low-income households don't help much. He's angry about the inequality he sees around him.

更别想买蛋糕和其他方便食品了,他努力把自己每月的开销压到400块人民币,把剩下的钱都给他女儿。他相信本届政府正在为穷人提供更多的帮助。但政府小额的补贴,对于低收入家庭起到的作用有限。他对自己身边目睹的不公平感到愤怒。

"It feels unfair, for sure, that for many years now the rich have been getting more and more rich," he said, "while people like me live a life that's more and more poor."

"这让人感到不公平,这么多年了,有钱人越来越有钱,而像我这样的穷人,生活越来越贫困。"

China's income inequality is growing steadily. That explains why inflation is increasingly controversial, even if it's still below the spike of early 2008.

中国收入不平衡的情况日益加剧。这就解释了现在的通胀率虽然比2008年初低,但却引起越来越多的争议。

Accurate data are hard to come by, but many economists estimate the country's Gini coefficient — the index of inequality — crossed the danger threshold of 0.4 about a decade ago. On the Gini scale, 0 represents complete equality and 1 represents complete inequality.

我们很难得到精确的数据,但很多经济学家估计,中国目前的基尼系数---即不平等指数---早在10年前就超过了0.4的安全值。基尼系数为0时,表示社会完全平等,而1代表社会彻底的不平等。

Officially, it is somewhere around 0.45-0.5, similar to the United States. But a landmark study earlier this year on unreported income, by the economist Wang Xiaolu at the China Reform Foundation, found that hidden income totaled $1.5 trillion, with 80 percent in the hands of the richest 20 percent. That would put China's Gini index at over 0.5, on par with many South American countries, and, if trends continue, headed for the income inequality of much of Africa.

然而,官方发布的基尼系数一直徘徊在0.45-0.5左右,很美国的基尼系数相仿。但今年初,中国改革基金会(China Reform Foundation)的经济学家王小鲁做了一项里程碑式的研究。研究发现,中国社会中有1.5万亿美元的灰色收入,其中的80%由20%中国最富有的人掌握。这样一来,中国的基尼系数就会超过0.5,和南美国家相当。如果这种收入不公的趋势持续,中国的基尼系数将会和非洲国家为伍。

Average incomes are rising, but remain low, especially in the countryside. Urban disposable incomes averaged 17,175 renminbi per capita in 2009, according to government figures, and 5,153 renminbi in the countryside. With households spending about 40 percent of their income on food, inflation in that sector quickly translates into hardship for millions.

中国国民的平均收入是在增长,但仍然处于低水平。特别是在中国农村。2009年,政府数据显示,城市居民可支配收入平均为人民币17,175元。而农村居民为5,153元。而家庭收入的40%用于食品开支,在食品领域发生的通胀,很快让无数人的人生活陷入困苦。1

Zhu Xuliang is one of Beijing's thousands of taxi drivers, who typically work 12-hour days, six days a week. He earns about 3,000 renminbi a month for his family of three — a nonworking wife and 14-year-old daughter. They are all tightening their belts.

朱旭亮(音译)是北京的一位的哥。每天照例要工作12个小时,一周干六天。一月挣3,000多块人民币养活一家三口。妻子没有工作,而女儿才14岁。他们都得勒紧裤腰带过日子。

"We have squeezed family food spending from about 1,500 renminbi to 1,000 renminbi a month," he said.

"我们现在把家里的食品开支,从每月1,500元,压缩到1,000元。"他说。

Mr. Zhu has an advantage over Mr. Wei — he is from the countryside near Beijing. With prices rising, he has started going home on weekends to pick up free food from his farming relatives: mostly potatoes, onions and cabbage.

相比魏先生,朱旭亮还有些"优势"。他来自北京郊区,看着价格上涨,他开始在周末的时候回家,到那些还在种田的亲戚家去拿些免费的食物,大部分是土豆,洋葱和卷心菜。

"We're O.K. because I get these things. But we have stopped eating out. KFC, all that, don't do it anymore. In fact the real problem is that even as we save, the taxi company wants more money from us to cover its rising fuel costs. So overall my income has shrunk over the last two years. I used to earn 3,500 renminbi."

"我们还过得去,我还能有这些东西吃。我们已经不在外面吃饭了,象肯德基这些的。但真正的问题是,即便我们这样省钱,出租车公司还要我们多交营业款,来弥补汽油价格上涨的成本。因此,这两年,我收入反倒减少了,我那时一月可以挣3,500块人民币。"

Yang, 26, is a native Beiijnger and office worker who lives with his parents. He considers himself lucky as he pays no rent, so his 3,500 renminbi income goes further than for some.

26岁的小杨,是个地道的北京人,在公司打工,和父母住一块。他庆幸自己不用付房租。所以他的3,500比其相同收入的来的经用些。

"Supermarkets are offering fewer discounts all the time, and fruit, vegetables and meat are all up," said Mr. Yang, who asked that his full name not be used to avoid exposing his financial situation.

"超市打折越来越少,水果,蔬菜和肉的价格一直在上涨。"他也不希望我们公布他的全名,免得让人家知道收入状况。2

What to do with his modest savings is another problem. Bank deposit rates are too low to make an account worthwhile, he said. "I can tell you a secret," he said. "I'm buying gold to hold my money's value. There's no better way."

谈到他节省下来的一些钱如何处理,他不避讳地说:"我告诉你个秘密,我现在正在买黄金保值。没有其他途经。"存银行的利率实在太低了。

"Really, I want to go abroad, but I can't afford to," he said. "I think there is more fairness in foreign countries. I come from a family without any special social connections, so all I can do is trust in the gods."

"说实在,我想去国外,但我没这个钱。"他说,"我想在外国,社会会公平得多,我家里也没有什么特殊的社会关系,所以,一切只能听天由命。"

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